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Game Outcome Model
Transparent training, accuracy, market, and methodology reporting
Data source
Live API
Report date
Mar 23, 2026
Retrospective market evaluation
Market Performance
Compare model probability with closing market-consensus probability, then inspect a historical probability-derived flat-stake simulation. This is model evaluation, not financial or betting advice.
01 · Market signal lab
What the historical market test measures
The test measures disagreement between model probability and closing market-consensus probability, then reconstructs American odds from that consensus probability for a retrospective flat-stake simulation. It does not use observed user-available sportsbook prices and does not establish future returns.
Sign in to view exact historical sample counts, probabilities, simulated stakes, returns, and segment results.