Model Report
Model acc.
63.5%
Report Date
Mar 2, 2026
Market Net Result
$+587.89
2.4% ROI on edge-based strategy
ProfitableBeating the market
Model Win Rate
181
out of 285
+9-11 ptsabove industry avg
Top Factor
8-Game Scoring
Predictive strength3.8%
High-Confidence Predictions
97%win rate
60%+ certainty
Ensemble:+-0.7% boost
Current Model
Training Window
2019-2024
285 test games
Test Season
2025
Full Season
How Our Models Work
We train ensemble models on 6 seasons of NFL data to predict game outcomes. Every week, we publish a comprehensive training report with model performance, accuracy metrics, and what drove our predictions.
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Complete accountability. Track accuracy, analyze errors, compare against market lines, and see which factors drive each prediction.
Ensemble
3 Models
Xgboost + Elasticnet + Logistic
Features
42 of 62
Survived The Gauntlet
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